GunFacts Hasn’t Any (3)
Just a quick debunking, in the lull of the holiday frenzy.
Myth: CCWs will lead to mass public shootings
Fact: Multiple victim public shootings drop in states that pass shall-issue CCW
legislation.17 .
Author cites John Lott (Lott J, Landes W; “Multiple Victim Public Shootings, Bombings, and Right-to-Carry Concealed Handgun Laws: Contrasting Private and Public Law Enforcement”; University of Chicago – covers years 1977 to 1995).
First, this doesn’t pass the common sense test. Consider the mass shootings in this country–they are most often perpetrated by deeply disturbed and suicidal individuals. These killers don’t expect to get away with their crimes; in short, they are committing highly irrational acts. Yet, Lott would have us believe some mentally ill and irrational gunman is going to reason that he shouldn’t really shoot up a mall or a school because the state has a CCW law?
Second, Lott’s research and tactics have often been suspect. I’ll not go into those details now–for now, I’ll leave it to Prof. Mark Kleiman of UCLA to summarize. (Scroll to “LOTT, DONOHUE, AND LEVITT”).
Third, there exist a number of studies that contradict Lott’s thesis. This one finds “virtually no support for the hypothesis that the laws increase or reduce the number of mass public shootings. ”
This also is key in debunking much, if not all, of Lott’s “More Guns, Less Crime” thesis.
You’re right, it’s impossible to document the effects of anything on mass shootings,because there aren’t nearly enough of them to establish a trend without having standard deviations that (in relation to the number of shootings) go through the roof.
You’re also right about a mentally ill person being stopped by legslation, gun legislation has never stopped these gunmen, people like Assam have.
Comment by Michael Hawkins — December 27, 2007 @ 7:03 am
Well, Lott’s research may or may not be “good”. I suspect some of it is good and some of it uses selective data. Then again, all “statistical studies” with “definitive” results do this. The important thing is that gun control laws don’t and can’t decrease mass shootings, and licensed concealed carry certainly doesn’t increase it. The correct “Fact” for the Myth would be: “Citizens legally carrying concealed weapons have never perpetrated a mass shooting. Concealed carry laws have also not shown to positively decrease mass shootings.”
You are correct that certifiably insane people aren’t going to say “well, people at that mall have guns, so I’m not gonna shoot it up.” On the other hand, the shooter at the New Life church expected to be able to kill a lot more people than he was able to. Sure, that is only an anecdote, but it demonstrates that even minus the (arguable) deterrent effect of concealed carry, the reality of allowing individuals to stop mass shootings is proven.
Comment by Gregory Morris — December 27, 2007 @ 7:54 am
GM: I think Lott has been pretty much disavowed by most serious folks in the gun policy arena–on both sides.
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Then again, all “statistical studies” with “definitive” results do this.
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Actually, a statistical study should never arrive at a “definitive” conclusion; what it should provide is a likely range or strong evidence one way or the other.
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The important thing is that gun control laws don’t and can’t decrease mass shootings, and licensed concealed carry certainly doesn’t increase it.
Non sequitor.
First, nobody on my side is claiming CCW will lead to mass shootings. We’re more concerned about lots of 1 or 2 shootings.
Second, the logic doesn’t follow; if a disturbed person can obtain a firearm–the laws in many states will also permit him to obtain a CCW permit. Common sense says most folks bent on mass shootings aren’t going to bother with going for the CCW. Similarly, a CCW doesn’t prevent a disturbed individual from acting on his irrationality.
Comment by Administrator — December 27, 2007 @ 4:50 pm
“First, nobody on my side is claiming CCW will lead to mass shootings.”
Ex-cuse me?
The gunshine state? Bullet-dodge city? Warning people in airports, screaming that minor traffic incidents WILL turn into shootings?
Comment by Michael Hawkins — December 28, 2007 @ 5:10 am
“Common sense says most folks bent on mass shootings aren’t going to bother with going for the CCW.” We are certainly in agreement there. I am just as concerned about numerous “1 or 2″ shootings. That’s one of the reasons I’m glad the NICS improvement act passed, because it basically makes the states ensure they are following federal law by not allowing disturbed individuals from obtaining firearms, while at the same time, ensuring that the rights of a mentally sound person is not infringed. It won’t guarantee firearms can’t fall into the wrong hands, but it will prevent some easy access to firearms.
Comment by Gregory Morris — December 28, 2007 @ 7:40 am
because it basically makes the states ensure they are following federal law by not allowing disturbed individuals from obtaining firearms, while at the same time, ensuring that the rights of a mentally sound person is not infringed.
Actually, it does not. VA Tech demonstrated about how effective NICS is.
Comment by Administrator — December 28, 2007 @ 3:20 pm
No, VTech demonstrated that the current way of courts declaring somebody psychologically unsound aren’t airtight.
Comment by Michael Hawkins — December 29, 2007 @ 6:24 am