GunFacts Hasn’t Any (9)
Pages 3-4 of NoFacts:
Myth: Texas CCW holders are arrested 66% more often.
Fact: Most arrests cited are not any form of violent crime (includes bounced checks or tax delinquency). 13
This “myth” is concerned with a 1998 Violence Policy Center study that demonstrated two points: 1. Texas Concealed Handgun License Holders Arrested for Crimes That Include Murder, Kidnapping, Sexual Assault, Weapon, and Drug Charges; and 2.) Texas Concealed Handgun License Holders Arrested for Weapon Offenses at Rate More Than Twice That of State’s General Population Aged 21 Years and Older.
Author attempts to conflate the two findings and fails miserably. Author cites “13 “Basis For Revocation Or Suspension Of Texas Concealed “, Texas Department of Public Safety, December 1, 1998.” Cite makes no sense whatsoever; Texas DPS numbers show out of 946 crimes by TX CCW permit holders, 263 were felony arrests, including: six charges of murder or attempted murder involving at least four deaths; two charges of kidnapping; 18 charges of sexual assault; 66 charges of assault, including 48 cases of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon; and, 42 weapon-related charges. Six-hundred eighty-three were misdemeanor arrests, including: 194 weapon-related charges and 215 instances of driving while intoxicated.
Fact: The VPC “study” only includes arrests, not convictions.
No cite is provided but the VPC study does say “arrests.” So does the author’s “myth.”
Fact: Many of these arrests in this premature VPC “study” came in the early years of Texas CCWs when the law was not understood by most of the law enforcement community or prosecutors.
Again, no cite.
Fact: Compared to the entire population, Texas CCW holders are about 7.6 times less likely to be arrested of a violent crime.14 The numbers breakdown as follows:
• 214,000 CCW holders15
• 526 (0.2%) felony arrests of CCW holders that have been adjudicated
• 100 (0.05%) felony convictions
Author cites “14 Texas Department of Corrections data, 1996-2000, compiled by the Texas State Rifle Association, www.tsra.com/arrests.htm.”
Link no longer works, but thanks to the Wayback Machine, we find a ’study’ by William Sturdevant was removed in early 2006. Mr. Sturdevant provides no cites.
Fact: A different study concludes that the four year violent crime arrest rate for CCW holders is128 per 100,000. For the general population, it is 710 per 100,000. In other words, CCW holders are 5.5 times less likely to commit a violent crime.16
Author cites Mr. Sturdevant’s ’study’ which contains no references, footnotes, or cites.
VPC ’study’ which contains no references, footnotes, or cites. So why should it be believed?
Comment by JDFAR — January 16, 2008 @ 8:42 am
Actually, if you read the study from VPC, it provides cites and references. You’re looking at the press release.
Comment by Administrator — January 16, 2008 @ 7:12 pm
Looking at VPC, & total crime reports from www.disastercenter.com
Felony crimes from Jan 96-Oct 97 For CCW License holders 263, for (per VPC) 151,433 License holders
So this averages 95.63/100,000 per year of VPC study, This includes both Violent Crime & Felony Property crime.
From the Disaster Center (which uses data from the UCR) for the 2 years covered, in the VPC study Crime overall in Texas:
Avg Violent crime was 623/100,000 & Property Crime was 4971/100,000 avg per year. Or 5594/100,000 combined for the general population per year
If the numbers are projected for a full two years (as the VPC did a 22 month study) & combine the Misdemeanors & the Felonies we come up with a rate of 174/100,000 For CCW License holders avg per year
For the same period Murder rate for TX was 7.25/100,000 per yr. VPC listed Murder/Attempted Murder together if we count all 6 as homicides the rate would be 2.18/100,000 per year (has to be lower since VPC states “Attempted Murder”, but we will figure on the High side.)
Forcible Rape General Population 42.5/100,000 Sexual Assault CCW Holders 6.5/100,000 per year (sexual assault, can be crimes well below a rape chg.)
Aggravated Felony Assault General Population 409/100,000 Total Assaults 67/100,000 for CCW holders per year. (approx 2/3 rds were simple Assaults per the VPC study)
As to Suicides mentioned in the report from VPC, there were 3 total, this figures in at 1/100,000 per year among license holders, avg for Texas is 9-11 per 100,000 depending on the year.
Of course as VPC said these were arrests of CCW License holders & not convictions
Comment by JDFAR — January 17, 2008 @ 3:04 pm
You’re sure you don’t see the fallacy in your argument?
Comment by Administrator — January 17, 2008 @ 6:48 pm
Who says the anti-gun movement can’t make an argument with facts and without emotional appeal!
Makes perfect sence if you don’t look to hard!
Comment by Freddy — January 18, 2008 @ 5:52 am
http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/administration/crime_records/chl/ConvictionRatesReport2003.pdf
Total convictions in Texas 2003-32,680
Total convictions of CHL holders-58
CHL holder % of Total Convictions 0.17775%
(is % derived from the ratio of CHL holder convictions to total convictions for the offense)
Comment by JDFAR — January 18, 2008 @ 3:46 pm
“the study from VPC”
Yeah, I’m sure it’s the standard for righteousness.
Comment by theirritablearchitect — January 20, 2008 @ 12:26 pm
JDFAR: I think you’re missing the point of this series. I’m systematically demonstrating what GunFacts says is false. You seem to be laboring under the misconception that because x is false, somehow it makes x true if you state y is true or false.
Comment by Administrator — January 22, 2008 @ 6:48 pm
Hey Jade, I really like this Not-Posting style you have. Keep it up!
Remember, Never-again is too soon for you to start posting again!
Comment by Freddy — February 1, 2008 @ 7:12 am